Intention bias in decision
What is bias?
The idea of bias becomes very important in business.
We will be involved in many things such as business efficiency improvement, business quality, business strategy, product image.
The fact that you do not know that you know the way of thinking of bias is the same as not having one weapon in business.
The way of thinking is very deep, here we will briefly explain, but if you want to know more deeply please try to find out more.
What is bias in decision
Bias is “prejudice, bias, and paranoid”.
Especially in the case of this “decision making intention” it becomes bias of the way of thinking.
It is actually what everyone has, it comes out to personality, personality, life.
The bias of this way of thinking is very important in referencing various ways of thinking.
In other words, it is said that “people who have ideas can not make the same decision”.
Also, even if you make intuitive judgment bias will be involved.
Power to judge things firmly “Will power” will be consumed in the same way as physical strength.
In order to suppress its will, I think that it is equipped with an automatic judgment function called a bias.
Have not you felt like this in the company?
It can be said that the bias of the way of thinking appears greatly.
Biases of thinking, it comes out in personality and character
Should biases be managed?
Should I actually manage that bias?
Let’s think about things at factories and other production sites.
Variation and Process Capability But we are talking in detail, but the product has variability / bias It is important to secure quality considering that.
As a result, there are standards in products, which will be passed to the world and the quality will be kept.
The way of variation as a natural phenomenon is represented by a normal distribution.
The deviation and variation of product manufacturing are as shown in the figure below.
The curve in blue is the ideal target distribution, the curve in red is a distribution with large variation, the curve in brown color is in distribution with bias.
We will adjust it to approach the ideal target distribution.
This reduces reworking and disposal and improves profitability.
Exactly the same thing can be said in other work.
Manufacturers · factories say that this is the only way to secure quality and efficiency, but the business itself does not say much.
If you think that the object is central to the center, the ideal distribution in other tasks, the distribution with large dispersion, and the distribution with bias are as follows.
Depending on the work, there are few visible parts that are actually visible, and it is difficult to judge whether the quality is bad or bad.
However, it becomes very useful for the company by managing it.
The bias is corrected as follows because of bias state distribution state.
Efficiency improvement of work · Management is necessary for business quality assurance
Type of bias
Bias is “biased / paranoid”, so there are enormous numbers of subjects.
Here I will explain some of the biases that are likely to be related to business, among the countless biases.
Generally, it becomes bias of wrong idea.
· Thunk cost bias
It becomes a bias against sunk cost (burial cost: time spent, effort, money).
In order to recover the sunk cost once spent, it becomes a bias to further increase the sunk cost.
As a way of thinking, it is equivalent to thinking into gambling that costs can be recovered if you invest a little more.
For companies, this bias has become an inseparable one.
It is said that it is a mission for each company how to judge where.
I would like to take up a detailed story later on “Failure cases with bias in business”.
· Overconfident, Under bias
This bias is biased by the difference from the objective position as to how to grasp own evaluation.
Relatively male is said to have a strong bias of “overconfidence”, women are said to be “biased too much confidence” bias.
In addition, those who continue to be praised on a daily basis are said to have a strong bias of “overconfidence”, and those who continue to be blamed are said to have a strong bias of “self-confidence underestimation”.
• Loss avoidance bias
It is very similar to Thunk Cost Bias.
It is biased to emphasize ‘lose’ rather than ‘get’ and to avoid risk.
It is an essential bias that moves away from human fear.
· Example: If you shake a dice, “1, 2, 3” comes out you will lose “eyes out * 1000”, if “4, 5, 6” comes out you will get “outgoing eyes * ¥ 1000” .
Chance is only once.
Do you do?
Even if the amount of money you get is doubled, there are things to lose, so you should think for a while to avoid “losing”.
If it is an excessive loss avoidance bias, it will be impossible to do something new.
Generally wrong idea bias
As a society it becomes a biased idea related to groups.
Social bias is very persistent because the group as a whole may fall into a sort of collective thinking.
Therefore, it is a difficult bias to change your mind.
Bias against gender
It is biased toward thinking like male and female base and discrimination on work on gender discrimination.
It will be contents that distinguish between jobs given to men and jobs given to women.
Of course, men and women are heterogeneous so it would be fine if the right materials are right, but men and women have to be treated equally.
· bias against ethnicity
It is biased toward thinking among ethnic groups.
Even if it crosses the country or ethnic group, even if it is in the same country, there is a similar bias depending on regional differences.
Bias for culture
It is biased toward thinking about culture and country.
For example, how to eat noodles
Eat it by sipping noodles → How to eat the best use of olfaction
Noodle softly eating → eating it with sound makes manners violate
The idea that “Japanese at the time of meal = how to eat is dirty” is biased.
· bias against religion
It is biased toward thinking about religion.
This bias is strong among social bias.
Because it is often called a bias, since you often create images for your religion without permission, there is also a place close to “hypothesis verification bias” which we will discuss later.
It does not become “way of thinking of correspondence religion = person’s way of thinking”.
“Many ways of thinking belonging to correspondence religion = not that person’s way of thinking” does not become.
Biased ideas related to groups
It becomes a bias of the idea born by recognition and recognition.
· heuristic bias
By knowing heuristics (tacit knowledge, implicit rules, near accurate hypothesis), it becomes a bias of the way of thinking about it.
It is not grounds to accept that it is based on implicit rules.
It can not be said to be a bad thing, but do not neglect the most important theoretical part (grounds) where priority is given to it.
Example: Heuristic bias in folk remedy
Although it has not been elucidated medically, if there is information that it acts as folk remedy, it will take precedence and practice it.
· Validation bias
It is biased towards thinking that listens only opinions that strengthen self-esteem
We collect only information based on our own hypothesis, we will not gather the opposite information.
Therefore, it seems that my own hypothesis became an established theory as self-suggestion was applied.
Example: Rumor · Gossip
I talked about the contents of rumors and gossip around and strengthened my opinion though the information came back to me.
Furthermore, if there are a lot of stories, there is no confirmation of the rumor itself, but it turns into conviction.
Another example as an example: appearance
Judgment of those who are likely to have money (psychology)
· Suit suits
Dressed well → company workers → “Are you making money?”
· Regular clothes
Rough appearance → Not on occupation → “Do not you earn much money with freeters?”
This is also one of the confirmation bias.
Depending on the case, there is never such a thing.
Even those who actually have money have plenty to live in, there are many people who live.
The information given earlier is biased towards thinking distorting and influencing the information after it
After showing a large number it is biased toward the larger numerical value, after showing a small numerical value it is biased toward the smaller numerical value.
In the business world we use a lot of anchoring.
Have you seen ads like the one below?
· Place one numerical value
· Put the numerical value to be compared (big one) in front
How is that? Did not you feel cheaper ②?
In other businesses, for example, in the business display the highest brand store ‘s products from the outside of the brand store, customers who enter the store after seeing it feel that the items in the store are cheap. It is contents.
Biased idea born by recognizing / recognizing
Failure example with bias in business
Frequently issued in the case of thunk cost bias is the story of a supersonic aircraft “Concorde”.
As a supersonic aircraft, “Concorde” finally managed by British Airways and Air France.
Various problems such as restricted airport use, sound problems, cruising distance problems and others remained.
The investment amount expanded steadily.
Example of service: London ~ New York
|Concorde||General jet aircraft|
|Fare (round trip)||About 1.8 million yen|| About 100,000 yen (LCC) |
About 1.4 million yen (first)
|Time||3 hours 45 minutes||7 hours 40 minutes|
|Maximum cruising distance||20||1|
|fuel ratio [per passenger]||7,229 km||Approximately 15,000 km|
|Number of seats||100||about 200 – 300|
|Seating size||Economy class degree||–|
Approximate sunk cost transition of Concorde
The psychology of recovery of investment was not dispelled, it continued investment as it was, and it came to the end in 2003.
If you include sunk cost as decision intention, it will be biased like this, not only can not be decided at an early stage, but it will make the situation worse.
Surely there is a way to solve the problem, or if the technology is more advanced it may have been different.
But, as a result, that judgment was wrong.
Do not use sunk cost as a criterion
To avoid bias
How should we avoid the bias?
· certain information
It also supports the theoretical underlying information
Make the source solid.
Judgment check for information
Information incorporates not only one way but also disputational opinion.
As a judgment method
If there is a bias in the group, check if there is any bias situation in education.